Security situation Conflict in many parts of the country

    Pronounced social inequality and the lack of opportunities are causing tensions within society and have contributed to the recurrent violent conflicts that Nigeria has been experiencing. The government has lost control over some regions.

    Often, social and economic conflict is used as a pretext for pitting ethnic or religious groups against each other. Nigeria is home to more than 250 ethnic groups. The country's north is mostly inhabited by Muslims, while the south is mainly Christian. The divide between extreme wealth (economic hubs, southern Nigeria) and extreme poverty (rural areas, northern Nigeria) and the noticeable impact of climate change are posing a threat to the stability of society as a whole.

    As a result of terrorism and organised gang crime, the security situation has deteriorated continuously since 2020. While the number of attacks by the terrorist Boko Haram group has decreased in the last few years, the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), which broke away from Boko Haram, has continued to spread throughout north-eastern Nigeria.

    In December 2023, there were some 3.5 million internally displaced persons in Nigeria according to the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR), 2.3 million of them in north-eastern Nigeria. More than 340,000 Nigerians have sought refuge in neighbouring countries. According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), some 8 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance.


    Conflicts over resources

    Conflicts between pastoralists and farmers in central Nigeria have expanded to further regions. Nomadic pastoralists traditionally move south from the northern part of the country to graze their cattle and bring meat to the slaughterhouses in the south. However, the old grazing corridors no longer exist. The land has either been built up or is being used for farming.

    The conflict over land and resources might lead to a rift between ethnic and religious groups, as the parties involved are mainly Muslim pastoralists and Christian farmers. Increasing desertification in northern Nigeria, high population growth and the lack of economic opportunities for young people are exacerbating the conflict. In December 2023 and January 2024, the world was shocked by several coordinated attacks committed by armed groups against mainly Christian settlements in Plateau State. Over 250 people were killed. Thousands were displaced. Many schools, religious facilities and homes were destroyed.

    High risk of escalation

    Experts also consider the increasing gang crime (cattle theft, raids, kidnappings) in north-western Nigeria as a critical threat to the general security situation. The gangs are increasingly being infiltrated by Islamist organisations, so that the boundary between crime and terrorism is increasingly fading.

    The situation also remains tense in the oil field region in the Niger Delta.In that region, militias are fighting for giving local people a greater share in the benefits from the region's resources. The original political, economic and social concerns of the fighters are increasingly being eclipsed by criminal interests.

    Another simmering conflict can be found in the south-eastern part of the country, where separatist groups are fighting for an independent Biafra. Similar moves in the late 1960s had led to a civil war that lasted nearly three years.

    Another security challenge is piracy in the Gulf of Guinea. Nigeria's navy only has limited capacity to protect vessels and their crews from raids and kidnappings.

    As at: 02/02/2024